Tuesday, February 23, 2016

On The Inevitability Of Donald Trump Winning The gop potus Nomination (& Then Losing In The General)

Latin people for Republicans are like roaches for raid ~ John Leguizamo (dob born 7/22/1964) a Colombian Puerto Rican American actor, voice actor, producer, comedian, playwright and screenwriter. Remarks made during a 2004 Democratic Party fundraiser.

The following is an excerpt from a 2/22/2016 conversation between David Schuster and the host of the Thom Hartmann Radio Program concerning the possibility of Donald Trump securing the GOP potus nomination. (Note that I have edited Schuster's and Hartmann's comments for brevity and clarity).

Thom Hartmann: You said that you think that Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. You seem to be saying this with some confidence. It seems to me that the Republican Party, institutionally, is going to do everything they can to keep Donald from becoming the nominee. He doesn't have a majority, only a plurality. If a couple more people drop out of the race, and it becomes him versus fill in the blank, I think fill in the blank is going to win, don't you?

David Schuster: You're right, I sense a certain certainty about Donald Trump getting the nomination. The reason being that, in order arrive at the point where there are two men standing, you need either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz to pull out. In my reporting the Republican establishment hates Ted Cruz far more than they hate Donald Trump. We've seen a number of Senators like Orin Hatch and former senators like Trent Lott suggest that Washington can work with Donald Trump - he's a deal maker. We cannot work with someone like Ted Cruz, who simply does not want Washington to get anything done.

I'm starting to see a number of establishment Republicans warm to the idea that OK, maybe we can work with Donald Trump if he's the nominee. So, I'd bet that there's a greater effort to deny the nomination to Ted Cruz than to Donald Trump. But there is still the idea that a more Republican insider establishment person like Marco Rubio can become Trump alternative and the party can coalesce behind him. I'm not so sure that Rubio can pull that off. In some of the polling and analysis that has been done of Rubio supporters and Trump supporters, I think many of the Cruz supporters would go to Trump.

Thom Hartmann: Because so much of Ted Cruz's base is fundamentalist Christian/misogynist/racist/generally freaked out.

David Schuster: Exactly. And making matters worse for the Republican Party is, while there is a proportional count now, starting on March 15th (just over 2 and a half weeks from now), it's winner take all [non caucus states]. Let's assume that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio decide, hey I still have a legitimate shot - if they go into those contests and we're still looking at 3 candidates, Donald Trump with 35 or 40%, he can still win 100% of the delegates in some of these states.

I also look at history - nobody on the Republican side has ever won New Hampshire and South Carolina and NOT won the nomination. I just don't see anything that might change that this time around. To me, it seems that the Republican Party is going to come around try to find a way to work with Donald Trump. ... The cynic in me is telling me that is Donald Trump is a shrewd tactician who is doing this just to get elected. He isn't as crazy or hateful as he comes across. He simply realizes that there are a lot of Republicans voters out there who so angry at the Republican establishment that he can exploit that dissatisfaction and anger to get elected.

My sense is that Donald Trump will get the nomination, but I can't see how he'd win in the general election, no matter who the Democratic nominee is. Even if it's Hillary and she's indicted [over her emails].

[End 2/22/2016 Hartmann/Schuster Discussion Excerpt]

Wow! Schuster thinks that even if HRC is indicated she'll win. If that happens it's sure going to cause many Republican heads to explode (although I doubt there will be an indictment). I'm still hopeful that the nomination and presidency goes to Sanders, however. If so I believe his presidency will be transformational (and turn back the plutocratic tide). The only thing that could impact the inevitability of a Trump nomination and loss would be an economic crash (which is being predicted by Hartmann, the only question is how soon it will happen).

Otherwise I think David Schuster's analysis is correct. Mostly because "the GOP won't win back the White House in 2016 without garnering substantially more support from Hispanic voters than it received three years ago".

...the eventual Republican nominee needs to earn at least approximately 35% of the Hispanic vote in both Colorado and Nevada to compete for their Electoral College votes and at least 40%, if not 45%, of Hispanics in Florida. In 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney failed to hit these numbers, and lost all three states (How well must GOP do among Hispanics to win in 2016? by David M. Drucker. The Washington Examiner 9/3/2015).

Anyone think Trump is going to get more Hispanic votes than Romney did? Don't forget that Trump is in favor of ending birthright citizenship and wants to forcibly round up and deport 11-12 million illegal immigrants. I'm thinking that Trump's stand on these issues might have the opposite effect of endearing him to Latino voters.

SWTD #325

1 comment:

  1. People are just rushing to comment on your hate blog HA HA HA HA HA HA


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